Breaking Down HUD Stats with Martyn Horslen: Part 2

Last time out, we talked to Martyn Horslen in-depth about what HUD stats he uses and how he has recently changed what's displayed.  We also dove into post-flop stats.  Check out his blog for more details and read Part 1.  As a reminder, his HUD is set up as follows:

Line 1 - Name, Hands, Number of Big Blinds
Line 2 - VPIP, PFR, 3bet, Fold to 3bet, Fold to 4bet
Line 3 - BB Fold to SB Steal, SB Fold to Button Steal, BB Fold to Button Steal, SB Fold vs Resteal, BB Fold vs Resteal
Line 4 - Flop, Turn, River Cbet  (in position and out of position for each)
Line 5 - Flop, Turn, River Fold to Cbet  (in position and out of position for each)
Line 6 - Fold to Flop Donk Bet, Fold to Turn Donk Bet, Fold Flop Cbet in Position to a Raise, Fold Flop Cbet Out of Position to a Raise

PokerSoftware:  How do you use your steal-related stats on Line 3 of your HUD?  What type of sample size do you need before relying on any of the data?

Martyn Horslen:  The steal stats and re-steal stats are probably my favorite.  They are the starting blocks for the vast majority of my hands I play.  I think a really common scenario in cash games now is to raise nearly any connected cards when it is folded to you in the small blind.  I see a lot of players doing this, but I'm not sure they understand the math behind it or how tight the player in the big blind needs to be.

It basically breaks down like the following. When you raise to three big blinds, you are actually betting 2.5 big blinds because 0.5 was already take involuntarily as the small blind.  There is also the big blind in the pot and when you raise, it makes the total pot four big blinds.  Your 2.5 big blind raise needs to work 62.5% to break even; the big blind must play back 37.5% of his hands for your bet to be instantly unprofitable.

Knowing this creates some interesting opportunities.  For example, using the first stat (BB Fold to SB Steal), when we see a player with a higher number than 62.5%, we can raise any two cards in the scenario I described above and that specific bet is profitable.  This allows us to fold to a 3bet or fold any flop and it still shows a profit.  Even if you had A-A, you could check on the flop and fold to the big blind when he bets and it is still profitable.

I still find this amazing and you'll see the same kind of logic right throughout all of the stats on my HUD.

As for sample size, I use 10 hands for the all of the stats on this line.  If someone folds their big blind to a small blind steal seven times out of 10, it is unlikely that they will just start targeting you and never fold.  It happens and you need to be alert for when it does, but most of the time it's because you abused the opportunity.  In these scenarios, it is likely that you will have made a good profit and still have some left by the time you realize they have adjusted.

I like it when players start adjusting to me like this.  It presents an opportunity where my opponent isn't playing their natural game, they end up not making the correct adjustment, and make bigger mistakes on the flop and turn.  Usually, this comes in the form of folding to a Cbet on the flop or turn because their range has become wider.

You can take this information and color code the stat.  I use a green color to alert me to an area of my opponent's game that is mathematically profitable to exploit.  For BB Fold to SB Steal, I would make any percentage above 62.5% green.

PokerSoftware:  Do you utilize the Holdem Manager 2 HUD pop-ups?

Martyn Horslen:  I currently haven't gotten around to developing pop-ups for this specific HUD.  What I can tell you is that the default Holdem Manager 2 pop-ups are shockingly poor.  They can be hard to read and have no structure to help you play various part of a hand.  It's something I look forward to figuring out in the coming months, especially the styling of pop-ups to make them as easy as possible to read and follow specific lines of play.

The only thing I don't like about designing HM2 pop-ups is the awkwardness of coloring the stats.  You need to create a new panel on your HUD, add the stats that are in the pop-up, and then exclude them from your HUD and your opponents' HUD so they don't display on the table.

Also, similar to pop-ups is the street-by-street feature that changes the HUD and is displayed depending upon what street the current hand is on.  I think this could be used really effectively, but again, it's not something I have much experience with.

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